Raymond James Financial (RJF) Q1 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimates

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) will report quarterly earnings of $2.87 per share, reflecting a 2.1% decline year over year, while revenues are expected to increase by 5.4% to $3.73 billion [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been adjusted upward by 0.9% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts predict 'Revenues- Other' to reach $41.94 million, a 7.5% increase from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Net Revenues- Total brokerage revenues' are expected to be $583.97 million, reflecting a 4.5% increase year over year [5]. - 'Revenues- Account and service fees' are projected at $300.41 million, indicating a 12.2% decline year over year [5]. - 'Revenues- Investment banking' is expected to be $276.36 million, a 15% decrease from the previous year [6]. - 'Revenues- Interest income' is forecasted to reach $970.30 million, showing a 5.5% decline year over year [6]. Asset Management Metrics - 'Private Client Group Asset Under Management' is projected to be $1.67 billion, up from $1.49 billion in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Assets Under Management' is expected to reach $281.46 billion, compared to $243.90 billion a year ago [8]. - 'Total Interest-Earning Assets' is projected at $80.57 billion, an increase from $76.49 billion year over year [8]. Capital Ratios - The average prediction for 'Tier 1 Leverage Ratio' is 12.9%, slightly down from 13.0% a year ago [7]. - The consensus estimate for 'Total Capital Ratio' stands at 24.4%, compared to 25.0% in the previous year [7]. - The estimated 'Tier 1 Capital Ratio' is 23.2%, down from 23.7% reported in the same quarter last year [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Raymond James Financial shares have returned +3.5%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change [10].