Progressive (PGR) Q4 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimates

Core Insights - Analysts expect Progressive (PGR) to report quarterly earnings of $4.44 per share, reflecting an 8.8% year-over-year increase, with revenues projected at $21.94 billion, up 7.9% from the previous year [1] - There has been a downward revision of 0.4% in the consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days, indicating a reappraisal of projections by analysts [1][2] Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Net premiums earned' is $20.93 billion, indicating a 9.3% year-over-year increase [4] - The 'Companywide Total - Combined ratio' is expected to be 88.6%, compared to 87.9% in the same quarter last year [4] - Analysts estimate 'Policies in force - Companywide Total' to be 38.60 million, up from 34.95 million year-over-year [4] Policies in Force - 'Policies in force - Total special lines' is projected to reach 7.01 million, compared to 6.52 million last year [5] - 'Policies in force - Total personal auto' is expected to be 26.72 million, up from 23.77 million year-over-year [5] - 'Policies in force - Personal Lines - Direct auto' is estimated at 15.94 million, compared to 14.00 million last year [6] - 'Policies in force - Personal Lines - Agency auto' is projected to reach 10.78 million, up from 9.78 million [6] - 'Policies in force - Total Personal Lines' is expected to be 37.40 million, compared to 33.81 million last year [7] - 'Policies in force - Total Commercial Lines' is estimated at 1.20 million, up from 1.14 million year-over-year [7] - 'Policies in force - Total Property business' is projected to reach 3.68 million, compared to 3.52 million last year [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Progressive have declined by 9.1%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 0.6% [8] - Currently, PGR holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the overall market in the near future [8]