俄罗斯的钱去哪了？三年狂卖近400吨黄金，财政压力藏不住了

Core Insights - Russia's financial situation is deteriorating, with its available "safety cushion" becoming increasingly thin, particularly in terms of gold reserves [1][3] - The country has sold nearly 400 tons of gold from its national welfare fund over the past three years, indicating a reliance on past accumulations to stabilize current finances [1][3] - The gold is not being used for investment or structural adjustments but is directly funding the budget and covering rigid national expenditures [3][5] Financial Condition - By early this year, the gold reserves in the national welfare fund had significantly decreased to about 30% of their pre-conflict levels, indicating a heavy reliance on these reserves to meet increased financial obligations [3][5] - The welfare fund, originally designed for "emergency situations," is now tasked with covering not only regular welfare expenditures but also substantial costs related to military conflicts, such as compensation for casualties and support for military families [3][5] Economic Dynamics - The expenditures funded by gold sales do not generate long-term returns and only maintain the status quo, leading to a weakening of the financial model as gold reserves are depleted [5][7] - Despite the economic pressure, the Russian economy has not collapsed, partly due to domestic investments stimulated by capital restrictions and a wartime economic structure that has absorbed significant labor in sectors like military, energy, and transportation [5][7] Challenges Ahead - The internal economic cycle remains incomplete, as many essential technologies and materials still need to be imported, limiting the effectiveness of domestic production [7][9] - The shift in transaction methods, with a preference for gold and energy over the ruble, has accelerated the consumption of gold reserves, making it a critical payment tool for military procurement and essential goods [7][9] Future Outlook - While Russia's gold reserves have not yet reached a critical level, the ongoing reliance on these reserves for funding indicates a persistent financial pressure that could lead to challenges in the future [9] - The sustainability of this financial model is in question, as continued high expenditure rates could outpace the ability to replenish reserves, leading to increased economic and social costs down the line [9]