UBS Lowers Microsoft Target but Lifts Azure Growth Expectations Ahead of Earnings

Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered its price target on Microsoft to $600 from $650 while maintaining a Buy rating, attributing this change to sector-wide valuation compression despite improving near-term fundamentals [1] Group 1: Azure Growth Drivers - The ramp-up of Microsoft's Fairwater AI data centers is identified as a key near-term driver of Azure growth [2] - The Atlanta Fairwater facility became operational in October, and the Wisconsin site is expected to go live in the first quarter of 2026 [2] - UBS analysts conducted a site visit to the Wisconsin facility in mid-December, which informed their updated outlook [2] Group 2: Financial Estimates and Adjustments - UBS raised its Azure growth estimates ahead of Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter earnings report scheduled for January 28 [3] - The price target reduction reflects broader multiple compression across the software sector, despite the improved growth outlook [3] - The revised target is based on an assumed calendar-year 2027 free cash flow multiple of 47 times, down from 50 times previously, which still represents a justified premium relative to peers [4]