日本央行“鹰派按兵不动”，不想要债市崩，那就只能牺牲日元了？

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is caught in a policy dilemma, needing to stabilize the bond market, curb excessive yen depreciation, and support economic growth simultaneously, leading to the yen acting as a "pressure valve" for policy contradictions [1][8]. Group 1: Policy Signals and Market Reactions - Goldman Sachs' Rich Privorotsky notes that the Bank of Japan's decision can be seen as a "hawkish hold," with an upward revision of growth expectations and a commitment to maintain bond market stability, yet this has not supported the yen and has intensified its depreciation pressure [1][4]. - On January 23, the Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate but signaled potential future rate hikes, which did not prevent the yen from weakening, with the USD/JPY nearing the psychological level of 160 [1][4]. - Following the Bank of Japan's announcement, the yen continued to weaken, prompting speculation about possible official intervention, as indicated by the sudden rebound in the exchange rate [1][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Intervention Expectations - The 160 level for USD/JPY has become a warning line, as Japan intervened in the currency market four times in 2024 when the exchange rate approached this level, making investors alert to potential interventions [5][6]. - Market sentiment has shifted, with traders noting that if the exchange rate approaches 160 again, it could significantly impact market expectations [6]. - The liquidity in the foreign exchange market has narrowed, meaning that relatively small capital flows could lead to significant changes in exchange rates [6]. Group 3: Structural Challenges and Future Outlook - The Bank of Japan faces a deep structural dilemma, as avoiding a clear strategic choice between "supporting the bond market" and "stabilizing the exchange rate" may lead to a loss of policy credibility and a vicious cycle of market volatility [7][8]. - Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that if the market perceives a return of yield curve control (YCC), the yen may face further depreciation, highlighting the difficulty of achieving strong growth, high inflation, stable rates, and stable exchange rates simultaneously [8].