YISHENG(SZ:002458) Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2026-01-23 17:32Core Viewpoint - The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in France has led to a complete halt in the import of grandparent white feather chickens to China, significantly impacting the domestic white feather chicken industry, which accounts for over 30% of meat consumption in the country [1]. Group 1: Import Disruption - The interruption of grandparent white feather chicken imports is a result of the global avian influenza pandemic and the singular nature of the import channels, causing a more severe impact than previous disruptions [2]. - In December 2024, the U.S. and New Zealand suspended exports of white feather chicken breeds to China due to avian influenza, leading to a contraction in domestic import channels. By March 2025, Yisheng Group established a new import channel with France, which became the sole source of grandparent white feather chickens, with an annual import volume of approximately 620,000 sets, a year-on-year decline of over 10% [2]. - Following outbreaks in France in late 2025, a ban on imports was quickly implemented, and there has been no news of alternative sources for imports [2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Dynamics - The current import disruption exhibits a significant "no alternative" characteristic, with no other countries currently able to resume supply, leaving domestic companies in a state of observation [3]. - The shortage of grandparent chickens will transmit effects through the supply chain, impacting parent stock and then commercial chicks over a period of approximately 14 months, leading to rising prices for parent stock chickens [3]. - Parent stock chicken prices have been rising since September 2025, reaching 60 yuan per set in January 2026, significantly higher than early 2025 prices [4]. Group 3: Industry Differentiation - The chain reaction from the import disruption is causing a clear differentiation among market players, with large enterprises benefiting from sufficient import reserves and production capacity, while small and medium-sized farmers face dual pressures from market volatility and rising costs [6]. - Yisheng Group reported an increase in imports in 2025, with expectations that the suspension of imports will not affect their production capacity in 2026 [5]. Group 4: Domestic Breed Development - The import disruption highlights the importance of domestic breed autonomy for industry security, with Yisheng Group achieving significant sales of its self-developed breeds in 2025 [7]. - The core bottlenecks for promoting domestic breeds include lower feed-to-meat ratios and stability issues, but domestic breeds are gaining market recognition due to their advantages in price and disease resistance [7]. - Policy support is deemed crucial for the development of domestic breeds, with suggestions for subsidies to support breeding companies during the research and development phase [8]. Group 5: Future Industry Outlook - The white feather chicken industry is expected to undergo structural changes due to the import disruption, with larger enterprises gaining more market power and a shift towards diversified and autonomous supply structures [9]. - The overall market outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of higher prices for parent stock and commercial chicks due to the low import volumes in 2025 [10]. - The disruption serves as a stress test for the industry, revealing vulnerabilities in reliance on foreign sources and pushing for a transition towards a more self-sufficient and resilient industry structure [10].