证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 农林牧渔 生猪去化趋势不改，择机参与板块配置 本月热点：2025/11/28 全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价 11.09 元/kg，较上月下跌 9.1%。行业亏损持续，2025/11/28 自繁自养头均盈利-147.99 元/头，较 上月减少 58.66 元/头，外购仔猪头均盈利-248.82 元/头，较上月减少 69.1 元/头，且旺季出栏比重加大，亏损对各个养殖主体来说实际影响更大。10 月官方公布能繁母猪下降至 3990 万头，在政策驱动与低价的共同发力下， 后续产能还将持续下行。此外，冬季疫病以及欧洲非洲猪瘟进展也值得关 注，在低价影响下行业的突发因素或将增多。当前生猪股票关注度回到低 位，产业的变化却在持续酝酿中，我们仍建议择机参与生猪配置。 生猪养殖：2025/11/28 全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价 11.09 元/kg，较上月下跌 9.1%。考虑旺季亏损，养殖参与者的损失较大，我们预计未来较长时间成 本偏高的参与者面临减量压力，母猪产能数据变化仍将继续催化。当前估 值仍位于相对低位，关注低成本的猪企的配置机会，关注牧原股份、 ...

证券之星消息，11月28日养殖业板块较上一交易日上涨1.46%，民和股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3888.6，上涨0.34%。深证成指报收于12984.08，上涨0.85%。养殖业板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002234 | 民和股份 | 9.55 | 3.92% | 8.12万 | | 7602.85万 | | 000735 | 罗牛山 | 8.64 | 3.10% | 96.50万 | | 8.17亿 | | 002157 | 正邦科技 | 3.04 | 3.05% | 122.36万 | | 3.69亿 | | 002458 | 益生股份 | 9.00 | 2.39% | 13.60万 | | 1.21亿 | | 600965 | 福成股份 | 5.87 | 2.26% | 17.33万 | | 1.01亿 | | 603717 | 天域生物 | 8.85 | 1.96% | 5.47万 | | 4769.53万 | | 3007 ...

Group 1 - The livestock sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) rising, and key stocks such as Jinxinnong (002548) and Yisheng (002458) showing significant gains [1] - Major pig farming companies are expanding into Southeast Asia, indicating a trend of overseas expansion among leading enterprises like Muyuan, New Hope, and Haida [1] - The market is at a critical point of capacity reduction driven by both policy and market forces, with potential improvements in supply-demand relationships expected by mid-2026 if capacity reduction targets are met [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.58% of the index, with companies like Muyuan (002714) and Wens (300498) being the most significant contributors [3] - The overall capital expenditure of listed pig farming companies is stabilizing and slightly decreasing, as many firms are halting capacity expansion projects due to narrowing profits and cash flow pressures [2] - The livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, which includes companies involved in feed, pharmaceuticals, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [2]

山东益生种畜禽股份有限公司（以下简称"益生股份"）便是吴家强提到的育种企业。"有了国审的'身份证'，我们将发挥公司疫病净化体系及管理团 队的优势，在保证生产性能优秀的同时，做好种源鸡白痢、禽白血病等垂直传播疾病的净化，为客户提供'健康、干净、优质、高效'的种源。"益生 股份副总裁郝文建说。 科研单位与育种企业的深度携手也为817肉鸡打开了市场。据了解，817肉鸡已发展成为我国肉鸡产业的三大主导品种类型之一。数据显示，2024年 全国817肉鸡出栏24.7亿只，占肉鸡出栏量的17.2%，山东省817肉鸡养殖量约占全国的40%。 一个品种，为何历经40载仍保持着竞争力？山东省农科院家禽所研究员、国家肉鸡产业技术体系济南综合试验站站长曹顶国给出答案：这是由817 肉鸡制种模式的先进性决定的。 科技日报记者 王延斌 通讯员 高宗军 杨可欣 "由山东省农科院家禽研究所和山东益生种畜禽股份有限公司联合培育的'益生817肉鸡'成功通过国家畜禽新品种配套系审定，获得国家新品种证 书。"11月23日，在山东省济南市召开的"817肉鸡产业高质量发展研讨会"上，山东省农科院原党委副书记、省农业专家顾问团畜牧分团团长、省畜 牧协会秘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities highlights the cyclical recovery in the livestock industry, emphasizing the valuation shift for leading companies in the sector [1] Livestock Industry - The domestic livestock cycle is expected to reverse, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets likely to experience upward momentum [1] - Official capacity regulation in the pig industry is anticipated to accelerate cash flow improvements for leading enterprises, potentially transforming them into dividend stocks as industry capacity contracts [1] - In the poultry sector, limited supply fluctuations are expected, with market conditions likely to improve alongside demand recovery, allowing leading companies to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns [1] Feed Industry - The deepening industrialization of livestock and poultry farming, along with clear industry segmentation, positions leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [1] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a scarce growth sector, expected to benefit from demographic changes [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include: - For livestock: Youran Dairy, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu [1] - For pigs: Huazhong Holdings, Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Tiankang Biological, and Shennong Group [1] - For poultry: Lihua Stock, Yisheng Shares, and Shennong Development [1] - For feed: Haida Group [1] - For pets: Guibao Pet [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector, particularly focusing on the livestock industry and its cyclical recovery [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to support long-term pig prices. As of November 21, the price of live pigs was 11.67 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [1]. - The beef market is entering a new price increase phase, with the average price of beef at 66.38 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the livestock sector, suggesting that their cash flow will improve due to official capacity control measures [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product data, highlighting trends in livestock prices and supply dynamics [12]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The swine industry is seeing orderly progress in reversing internal competition, which is expected to stabilize profitability [13]. 2.2 White Chicken - A slight increase in supply is noted, with attention on seasonal consumption recovery [13]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [13]. 2.4 Eggs - The egg market faces significant mid-term supply pressure, with wholesale prices at 3.63 CNY/jin, down 28% year-on-year [13]. 2.5 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is anticipated, with a focus on the upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [13]. 2.6 Raw Milk - The report suggests that the de-stocking of dairy cows may accelerate in Q4, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [13]. 2.7 Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium-term demand and supply dynamics are projected to strengthen [13]. 2.8 Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [13]. 2.9 Sugar - Short-term increases in imports are noted, with attention on the rhythm of arrivals and fluctuations in crude oil prices [13]. 2.10 Rubber - Prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a positive outlook for the medium term [13]. 2.11 Palm Oil - Short-term performance is weak, with medium-term policy support being a focus [13]. 2.12 Cotton - Inventory pressure is neutral, with demand still needing recovery [13]. 2.13 Red Dates - Limited demand recovery is noted, with attention on weather conditions in new production areas [13]. 3. Market Trends - The report discusses market trends and price movements across various agricultural products, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors [12].

Core Viewpoint - Yisheng Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price and financial performance, with significant decreases in revenue and net profit year-on-year, indicating potential challenges in the poultry farming sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of November 21, Yisheng's stock price is 8.73 CNY per share, down 2.02% during the trading session, with a market capitalization of 9.659 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Yisheng's stock has decreased by 5.78%, with a 4.49% drop over the last five trading days and a 1.36% decline over the past 20 days [1]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Yisheng reported operating revenue of 2.036 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.7869 million CNY, down 89.42% year-on-year [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Yisheng has 42,200 shareholders, a decrease of 12.13% from the previous period, with an average of 17,754 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 13.80% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.692 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 602 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Ownership Structure - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Guotai Zhongxin Livestock Breeding ETF holds 14.8357 million shares, an increase of 5.3849 million shares from the previous period, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is a new entrant holding 7.1349 million shares [3]. Business Overview - Yisheng Co., Ltd. specializes in the breeding and sales of various poultry and livestock, with its main revenue sources being chicken (76.18%), pigs (15.47%), livestock equipment (5.48%), dairy products (1.72%), and other income (1.14%) [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯益生股份11月17日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司10月引种1.8万套，11月引种 3.4万套，目前公司引种未受到禽流感影响。 ...

益生股份（002458.SZ）11月17日在投资者互动平台表示，公司11月引种3.4万套，12月引种计划还在商 谈中，目前公司引种未受法国禽流感的影响。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：贵公司预计11月和12月引种多少？是否受法国禽流感 疫情影响？ （记者 王瀚黎） ...