21评论丨黄金和泛贵金属估值逻辑生变

Core Viewpoint - The new U.S. foreign policy at the beginning of 2026 has significantly impacted global politics and economics, leading to a rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [2] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of January 22, 2026, the London spot gold price reached $4,832.1 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures settled at $4,913.4 per ounce, marking an increase of 11% and 13.5% respectively within the first 14 trading days of the year [2] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index adjusted its annual weightings, increasing gold's target weight from 14.29% to 14.90% while decreasing silver's from 4.49% to 3.94%, leading to significant market volatility [3] - The adjustment resulted in a passive rebalancing fund scale of approximately $58.7 million for gold and $60.8 million for silver, indicating a larger adjustment scale for silver [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor statistics for December 2025 showed a significant drop in non-farm employment, with a total increase of only 584,000 jobs for the year, down from 2 million in 2024 [4] - Inflation data indicated that the U.S. CPI for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.6%, suggesting inflation did not decrease as expected [4] - Market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January 2026, with potential rate cuts anticipated in March [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariff challenges have led European investors to sell U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting gold's role as a safe-haven asset [5] - The Danish pension fund Akademiker Pension announced plans to sell $100 million in U.S. bonds due to concerns over credit risks associated with U.S. policies [5] Group 4: Central Bank Activities - Emerging economies are increasingly diversifying their foreign exchange reserves, with gold being favored as a decentralized reserve asset [6] - Poland's central bank was the largest official gold buyer in 2025, purchasing 95 tons, and has approved a plan to buy up to 150 tons more, aiming to increase its reserves to 700 tons [6] Group 5: Precious Metals Valuation - The valuation of precious metals has changed significantly due to a three-year bull market, with silver showing greater price elasticity due to its industrial applications [7] - Other precious metals like platinum and palladium are also experiencing supply constraints, which, combined with expanding industrial applications, suggest a significant demand elasticity [7]