Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-23 23:11Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock plummeted over 17% due to disappointing earnings guidance and warnings of potential supply shortages, marking the largest single-day drop since August 2024 [1] Group 1: Earnings Guidance - Intel's CEO, Pat Gelsinger, acknowledged that the company's current capacity and efficiency cannot meet market demand, indicating a long-term transformation journey ahead [1] - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share near breakeven, significantly below market expectations of approximately $0.05 per share and $12.51 billion in revenue [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - Weak outlook raises investor concerns about Intel's position in the semiconductor competition driven by AI, despite a previous year of over 100% stock price increase fueled by government investments and support from major players like SoftBank and Nvidia [2] - Intel's underperforming foundry business remains a key drag, as it has not capitalized on the booming AI demand in data centers, unlike its competitors [2] Group 3: Technological Developments - A focal point for the market is whether Intel's advanced process technology "14A" can attract large-scale foundry customers, which could drive stock price recovery [2] - Intel's CFO, David Zinsner, indicated that customers for the 14A technology are expected to emerge in the second half of this year, but analysts warn that substantial revenue contributions may not materialize until late 2028 [2] Group 4: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts believe that Intel's success in transforming its foundry business and achieving breakthroughs in advanced processes will be crucial for its long-term transformation [3] - Despite a weak outlook, Intel's Q4 earnings and revenue exceeded Wall Street expectations, but investors are more focused on future growth potential in the AI-driven semiconductor industry [2]