Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao·2026-01-24 00:52Core Viewpoint - The chlor-alkali industry is facing significant challenges in 2025, with multiple companies, including Xinjiang Tianye and Huashu Co., forecasting substantial losses due to declining PVC prices and oversupply in the market [1][2][3]. Company Summaries - Xinjiang Tianye (600075.SH) expects a net loss of approximately 50 million yuan for 2025, a stark contrast to a profit of 68.435 million yuan in the same period last year [1][3]. - Huashu Co. (600935.SH) anticipates a net loss between 145 million yuan and 180 million yuan, attributing the losses to weak demand and excess capacity in the PVC sector [3]. - Yinglite (000635.SZ) projects a net loss of 550 million yuan for 2025, marking a 9.44% year-on-year decline, and has recorded losses for four consecutive years [3]. Industry Analysis - The PVC market is characterized by "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand," leading to a cumulative price drop of approximately 11% for SG-5 type PVC in 2025 [2][4]. - The domestic PVC production capacity increased by 220,000 tons in 2025, reaching a total capacity of 29.93 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 7.35% [4]. - The average operating rate in the PVC industry is expected to remain around 77%-78% in 2025, with some high-cost small enterprises potentially exiting the market due to ongoing losses [4]. Demand Factors - The demand for PVC products is under pressure, particularly in the real estate sector, which accounts for about 60% of PVC downstream products [4]. - The area of completed housing in China decreased by 18% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, further impacting PVC demand [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the PVC industry may see a structural adjustment in 2026, with potential for supply-demand imbalances to gradually ease, although the oversupply situation is unlikely to be fundamentally resolved [4][5]. - The competitive landscape in the PVC market is expected to intensify, necessitating companies to enhance their competitiveness to survive future market changes [5].