胜率升至首位！美联储新主席人选“公布在即”，里德尔“异军突起”

Core Viewpoint - Rick Rieder, an executive at BlackRock, has gained significant traction as a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, attracting attention from President Trump due to his reform ideas and suitability for the role [1][5]. Group 1: Candidate Evaluation - Rieder's probability of being selected as Federal Reserve Chair surged from 6% to 49% on the prediction market Polymarket, making him the frontrunner [2]. - Trump has completed interviews with candidates and is expected to announce his choice soon, with Rieder and Kevin Warsh being highlighted as strong contenders [1][10]. - Concerns have emerged within Trump's inner circle regarding whether Rieder would adhere to the President's desire for rapid interest rate cuts or maintain an independent stance [4]. Group 2: Background and Qualifications - Rieder has a strong Wall Street background and an open attitude towards reforming the Federal Reserve, enhancing his candidacy [5]. - As BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, he manages approximately $2.4 trillion in bond strategies and has extensive market experience, having started his career at Lehman Brothers [6]. - Unlike other candidates, Rieder has never held a position within the Federal Reserve system, which may allow him to avoid traditional constraints [6]. Group 3: Policy Perspectives - Rieder's critical views on the Federal Reserve resonate with Trump, as he has publicly stated that current interest rates post-rate cuts are still too high for the housing market to recover [7]. - He believes that inflation is no longer a pressing issue and that the Federal Reserve should focus on the weakening labor market [7]. - Rieder advocates for the Federal Reserve to halt balance sheet reductions to prevent market turmoil, positioning himself as a pragmatic rather than ideological candidate [8]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Market expectations suggest that Rieder would adopt a data-driven approach, balancing the demands of the White House with the need to maintain the independence of the central bank [9]. - The selection process is nearing completion, with Rieder competing against other candidates, including Hassett and current Fed governors [10][11].