GZP(SH:601228) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-24 03:13Core Viewpoint - The outlook for Hong Kong's port in 2025 is not optimistic, with a projected container throughput of 12.91 million TEU, representing a year-on-year decline of 5.7% [1][5]. Group 1: Container Throughput Trends - Hong Kong's container throughput has been declining for nearly a decade, with a significant drop of 13.7% in 2023 [1][5]. - In contrast, Guangzhou Port's foreign trade container volume reached 14 million TEU in 2023, marking the first time it has surpassed Hong Kong [1][5]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis of Major Ports - In 2015, the foreign trade container volumes for Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and Guangzhou were 23.09 million TEU, 20.07 million TEU, and 5.76 million TEU, respectively, with a combined total of 48.92 million TEU [2][6]. - By 2025, the projected volumes are 33.12 million TEU for Shenzhen, 12.90 million TEU for Hong Kong, and 14 million TEU for Guangzhou, leading to a total of 60 million TEU [2][6]. - The new foreign trade container volume ratios for the three ports will be 55:22:23, indicating Shenzhen's significant lead and Guangzhou's recovery [3][7]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to Decline - Hong Kong currently operates 168 weekly shipping routes, but the number of routes for Europe and North America is limited to 3 and 7, respectively, which is significantly lower than Shenzhen's daily operations [4][8]. - Higher handling fees in Hong Kong compared to mainland ports have led to a decrease in cargo that previously required transshipment through Hong Kong, as goods can now be directly loaded in Shenzhen and Nansha [4][9]. - The removal of Hong Kong from the direct shipping list by the Twin Star Alliance and other factors contribute to the ongoing decline in throughput [4][9].