Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-24 04:26Core Insights - Alibaba is preparing to advance its chip business "Pingtouge" for a separate listing, which has surprised Morgan Stanley regarding the timing of the announcement [1][3] - Morgan Stanley estimates Pingtouge's potential valuation to be between $25 billion and $62 billion, representing approximately 6% to 14% of Alibaba's current market value [2][3] - The valuation is highly sensitive to factors such as the actual assets being sold, competitive positioning against domestic and international alternatives, and the final transaction structure [2] Market Focus - The current market narrative is primarily focused on Alibaba's "cloud + generative AI" core business and its ability to realize revenue growth in the coming quarters [3][4] - Investors are particularly concerned about whether Alibaba Cloud's revenue can accelerate in the near term, while Pingtouge's revenue is mainly derived from internal sources with uncertain commercialization paths [3][4] Short-term vs Long-term - Morgan Stanley believes that while the news about Pingtouge may act as a short-term catalyst for market sentiment, the excitement may not be sustainable and will ultimately revert to Alibaba's fundamentals [4] - The report emphasizes the need for key data points to support the valuation and market interest in Pingtouge [5] Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about Alibaba's trading prospects over the next 6-12 months, expecting the company to navigate short-term profit pressures and accelerate revenue growth from Alibaba Cloud [6] - The report suggests that the AI-driven cloud business has significant upside potential, which outweighs short-term profit pressures from local living and user acquisition investments [6] - Investors are encouraged to focus on the integration of Alibaba's core cloud and AI processes and tangible evidence of revenue growth, while viewing Pingtouge's capital story as an uncertain "additional option" until it achieves independence and approaches the listing stage [6]