大摩：抵御退出诱惑，当下美股虽如“狂暴公牛”却根基稳固

Core Viewpoint - Despite current market volatility, investors are advised to resist the temptation to exit the stock market, as the macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong, providing a solid basis for continued investment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - The current market is likened to a "bull riding" scenario, characterized by rapid policy shifts and unpredictable changes, yet it contains structural support due to resilient macroeconomic fundamentals [1]. - The probability of a deep bear market is considered low, given the backdrop of declining interest rates, steady corporate earnings growth, and the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [1]. Group 2: Market Participation - A broad market expansion is evident, with various sectors such as biotechnology, banking, natural resources, small-cap, and mid-cap stocks actively participating in the market rebound, indicating widespread and sustained market momentum [2]. - Predictions indicate that mid-cap earnings are expected to grow by 17% this year, while small-cap stocks are projected to achieve a significant 19% growth, marking a major turnaround compared to previous years of underperformance [2]. Group 3: Risks and Concerns - Significant risks remain, with the government attempting to balance maintaining economic momentum and continuing the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, which is described as a narrow policy path that could easily become unbalanced [2]. - Potential political interference, such as a Supreme Court ruling on tariff policies, could present a buying opportunity, but the primary concern lies in controlling inflation while sustaining economic momentum and the current easing cycle [2].