Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-24 08:01Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the global asset allocation strategy for personal finance by Bank of China, predicting a slow recovery in the global economy in 2026, with a focus on the performance of various asset classes amid changing monetary policies and economic conditions. Economic Overview - In 2025, global economic growth is expected to slow down with inflation receding, leading G10 countries (excluding Japan) into a rate-cutting cycle. The Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts are anticipated to push the US dollar index down, resulting in strong global asset performance, particularly in gold and silver, while oil is expected to be the only asset with negative returns. The Chinese asset market is entering a phase of value reassessment, with a slow bull market forming and the RMB expected to appreciate against the USD [1][8]. - For 2026, the global economy may continue its weak recovery, with uncertainties remaining. China's economy is projected to stabilize and grow between 4.7% and 5.0% due to supportive macro policies. The US is expected to see reduced policy uncertainty, while the Eurozone's economic fundamentals remain robust, and the UK economy shows resilience [1][8][10]. Equity Market - The internationalization and value reassessment of Chinese assets are ongoing, with the A-share market expected to solidify its slow bull market and potentially evolve into a long bull market. Hong Kong stocks are positioned to benefit from global liquidity inflows as a core hub for RMB asset allocation. The US stock market is expected to rise but may underperform compared to non-US markets, while European and Japanese markets are anticipated to see moderate gains [1][9][12]. Bond Market - The bond market is influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, leading to a downward shift in US Treasury yields. The UK bond market shows high allocation value, while German bonds are expected to perform slightly weaker. In China, the 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% [2][10][11]. Foreign Exchange Market - The trend of "de-dollarization" is expected to continue, with the US dollar's central tendency likely to decline. Non-US currencies are showing mixed performance, with the Euro and Malaysian Ringgit slightly stronger, while the Japanese Yen, British Pound, Australian Dollar, and Indonesian Rupiah are in the middle range. The RMB is expected to fluctuate within a stable range against the USD and may depreciate slightly against other major non-US currencies [2][10][20]. Commodity Market - The long-term upward trend for gold remains solid, with expectations for new historical highs in 2026, albeit with increased volatility. Silver is also expected to trend upwards due to multiple support factors. The demand dynamics for copper and aluminum are being reshaped by AI developments, while oil is expected to remain in a supply surplus situation. Prices for polyester and industrial silicon are anticipated to recover due to supportive policies, and lithium carbonate is expected to see price fluctuations based on supply and demand changes [2][11][12]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended global asset allocation order for 2026 is precious metals, non-ferrous metals, equities, and bonds. Gold and silver are expected to outperform copper and aluminum, while non-US equities are projected to outperform US stocks. In the bond sector, US Treasuries are favored over Chinese bonds, and oil is suggested for lower allocation [3][11][12].