“黑马”突然杀出！贝莱德高管里克·里德尔当选美联储主席的概率飙升

Core Viewpoint - The probability of Rick Riedel, a BlackRock executive, becoming the next Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54% as of January 24, up from just 4% at the beginning of the year, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment towards his candidacy [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Profile - Riedel's qualifications and reform-oriented vision have garnered attention from President Trump, with positive feedback from bond market participants and support from corporate executives at the Davos World Economic Forum [3][4]. - Riedel has a substantial background in Wall Street, managing approximately $2.4 trillion in bond strategies as BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer, and has never held a position within the Federal Reserve, which may allow him to approach the role without traditional constraints [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Proposals - Riedel has criticized the current monetary policy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should focus on the weakening labor market rather than inflation, which he considers a past issue. He advocates for lowering interest rates to stimulate economic activity [7][8]. - He proposes reducing the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate from the current range of 3.5% to 3%, indicating that more rate cuts are likely than previously anticipated [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Riedel is viewed as a pragmatic candidate rather than an ideologue, likely to maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve while balancing the demands of the White House [9][10]. - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chairman is seen as one of Trump's most influential appointments for his second term, especially as the administration addresses voter concerns over rising living costs and inflation [13].