“强现实”+“强预期” 碳酸锂期价创阶段新高！市场分歧加大

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, surpassing 180,000 yuan/ton, is driven by expectations of domestic supply contraction and improving demand dynamics [2][4]. Supply Dynamics - Concerns over supply contraction are heightened due to stricter regulations in the Jiangxi production area, with reports suggesting potential mine shutdowns [4]. - The current weekly production of lithium carbonate is approximately 22,200 tons, a decrease of 388 tons from the previous week, while weekly inventory has also declined by 783 tons to about 108,900 tons [6]. Demand Factors - The continuation of subsidies for new energy vehicles has positively influenced market expectations, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announcing policies to extend subsidies for heavy trucks and buses [5]. - Despite a marginal reduction in subsidy strength, the timing of the policy has improved expectations for demand in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. Market Sentiment - There is a growing divergence in market sentiment, with downstream companies showing limited acceptance of high prices and reduced purchasing enthusiasm [7]. - The current high prices are seen as a potential trigger for previously shut-down production capacities to re-enter the market [7]. Inventory and Pricing Trends - The current inventory structure indicates low levels in the lithium salt plants and downstream sectors, while traders hold higher inventories [6]. - The static inventory days for downstream usage have decreased to 7-8 days, compared to the normal level of around 14 days in 2025, indicating strong demand [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market is entering a phase of "weak expectations" versus "strong expectations," with the current price levels stimulating supply increases [9]. - The impact of rising lithium carbonate prices on energy storage costs is significant, potentially affecting the profitability of storage projects [8]. - The market is advised to monitor actual demand developments closely, as the current price surge may not be sustainable without continued strong demand [9].