城市NOA“向下走”

Core Insights - The implementation of a 128 TOPS chip for city NOA (Navigate On Autopilot) has been successfully launched, challenging the previous consensus that a minimum of 200 TOPS was required for such technology, indicating a shift towards mainstream adoption in the market [1] - A report by the China Automotive Industry Economic and Technological Research Institute forecasts that by November 2025, the cumulative sales of passenger cars equipped with city NOA will reach 3.129 million units, with a penetration rate of 15.1%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points from 2024 [1] - The trend shows that city NOA is moving from high-end vehicles to mainstream passenger cars, with over 68.9% of city NOA-equipped vehicles priced below 300,000 yuan [1] Market Penetration - In 2024, the penetration rate of NOA in the domestic automotive market is projected to be 7.3%, with city NOA at 1.52%, indicating a significant increase in adoption within a year [3] - By November 2025, 15 out of every 100 passenger vehicles are expected to be equipped with city NOA, marking a rapid scale-up in its market presence [3] Competitive Landscape - The focus of the industry has shifted from highway NOA to city NOA, with the latter being more complex to implement [4] - Over 78.3% of city NOA-equipped vehicles sold by November 2025 are expected to be self-developed by automakers, indicating a strong market position for companies that invest in in-house technology [4] Key Players - Notable brands in the self-developed city NOA segment include Tesla, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, and Xiaomi, each leveraging their unique technological capabilities to enhance their offerings [5] - Approximately 21.7% of city NOA-equipped vehicles are developed in collaboration with third-party suppliers, with traditional automotive brands making up 64.4% of these partnerships [5] Supplier Dynamics - The market for third-party city NOA suppliers is dominated by Momenta and Huawei, which together account for about 80% of the market share [6] - By November 2025, Momenta is expected to have a leading position with 414,400 units, while Huawei's HI model will account for approximately 19.76% of the third-party supplier market [6] Future Outlook - The upcoming mandatory national standard for intelligent connected vehicles is expected to set a clear safety baseline and further promote the marketization of related technologies [7] - The integration of end-to-end large models is seen as a key driver for the acceleration of city NOA, enhancing safety and user experience [8] - By 2030, city NOA is projected to become a mainstream feature in advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving systems, with significant market penetration expected in the 150,000 to 200,000 yuan price range [6][9]