2025年地方债市场回顾与2026年展望

Core Viewpoint - The local government bond market in 2025 is characterized by a significant increase in general bond issuance due to rising fiscal deficits, an unexpected surge in special bonds to address government arrears, a notable decline in bonds allocated for infrastructure, and a longer issuance period influenced by fiscal pressures and rising interest rates [1][2][3]. Group 1: 2025 Local Bond Market Overview - In 2025, a total of 1,678 new bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 53,616.89 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.55% and 14.03% respectively [2][3]. - The issuance of general bonds reached 7,700.21 billion yuan, accounting for 96.25% of the fiscal deficit, while special bonds amounted to 45,916.68 billion yuan, exceeding the limit by 4.36% [2][3]. - The average issuance period for local bonds extended to 14.47 years, reflecting the local governments' strategy to manage fiscal pressures [19]. Group 2: Policy Environment in 2025 - The fiscal policy shifted from "active" to "more active," with an increased fiscal deficit rate set at around 4%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year [27]. - Local government special bonds were primarily utilized for "clearing debts," with a focus on addressing overdue payments to enterprises [28]. - The establishment of a Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance monitoring and management of government debt risks [29]. Group 3: Local Government Financial Performance - Economic growth rates for most provinces declined in the first three quarters of 2025, with 24 provinces experiencing a slowdown compared to the first half of the year [30]. - Public fiscal revenue showed slight growth, while government fund revenues saw a significant decline, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market [31][33]. - Net financing from local bonds increased in most provinces, with notable growth in Shanghai and Ningxia, while five provinces experienced a decrease [34]. Group 4: Outlook for 2026 - The local bond issuance scale is expected to rise further in 2026 to support domestic demand and debt resolution, with projections indicating a total issuance of approximately 10.7 trillion yuan [36]. - The "stock-bond seesaw effect" is anticipated to remain prominent, with local bond market interest rates likely to experience fluctuations [37]. - Optimization of special bond usage management is expected, with a potential decrease in funding proportions for certain areas [38].