国信证券：A股春季行情结束的信号出现了吗？

Core Conclusion - This week, broad-based ETFs experienced concentrated redemptions, and the inflow of leveraged funds slowed down, leading the market into a phase of volatility and consolidation [1][5] - Historically, signals indicating the end of spring rallies often include substantial policy tightening, unexpected external shocks, and deteriorating fundamentals [2][6] - Current policies aim to support market stability and growth, suggesting that the spring rally is not over, with a balanced structural allocation recommended, particularly favoring technology and AI applications, while also paying attention to cyclical sectors, real estate, and consumer services [1][5][7] Market Liquidity and ETF Redemptions - Recent changes in A-share liquidity show marginal shifts, with the minimum margin requirement for financing raised from 80% to 100%, resulting in a slowdown of leveraged fund inflows [1][6] - Broad-based ETFs have seen significant net redemptions, totaling over 500 billion since mid-January, with the CSI 300 index ETF experiencing net redemptions of 325.9 billion and the CSI 1000 index ETF seeing 81.9 billion in redemptions [1][6] Historical Context of Spring Rallies - The end of spring rallies is often signaled by substantial policy tightening, as seen in historical examples such as the increase in stamp duty in May 2007 and regulatory changes in March 2017 [2][6] - External shocks, such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic, have also led to abrupt market declines [2][6] - Deteriorating fundamentals, such as lower-than-expected economic targets or industrial profit growth, can contribute to the end of spring rallies [2][6] Future Market Outlook - Current policies remain supportive, with liquidity still relatively abundant, and industry and thematic ETF subscriptions remain active despite the increase in margin requirements [7] - The ongoing spring rally is viewed as part of a broader bull market that began in 2024, with expectations for further policy support to boost macroeconomic performance [3][7] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI applications, is expected to remain a key focus, with opportunities also present in value sectors such as resources and real estate [3][7]