浙商证券：春季攻势“结构变化” 继续坚持“两法应对”

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a "cooling" phase with significant divergence among major indices, indicating a shift into a consolidation phase for heavyweight indices while growth indices remain strong [1][4][9]. Market Overview - The major indices have shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 breaking below the 20-day moving average, entering a consolidation phase [1][4]. - Growth indices such as CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 remain above the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for upward movement [4][9]. - Market sentiment has weakened, with a decrease in trading volume and an increase in the premium of stock index futures contracts [2]. Sector Analysis - Lagging sectors are showing signs of catching up, while the financial sector is weakening and telecommunications are showing signs of recovery [2]. - The valuation levels of major indices have increased, suggesting a potential for further growth [2]. Economic Indicators - China's GDP for 2025 is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3][8]. - The central bank has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25%, which may influence market liquidity [3][8]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of publicly raised securities investment funds [3][8]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a balanced mid-term portfolio in sectors with high economic activity and reasonable stock prices, particularly in the "two electricity and chemical non-machine" sectors [5][10]. - In the context of a "broad-based rally" pattern, it is advised to focus on indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 for relative returns [5][10]. - There is an opportunity to consider Hong Kong stocks, which have seen relatively lower gains, for potential buy-in during market pullbacks [5][10].