中泰证券:A股短期市场分化格局仍具延续性,中期或逐步收敛

Core Viewpoint - The short-term market in A-shares is expected to continue its differentiated pattern, while a gradual convergence may occur in the medium term [1] Short-term Market Dynamics - High elasticity sectors continue to attract incremental capital due to their profitability, making it difficult for market risk appetite to decline rapidly in the short term [1] - The RMB exchange rate has shown signs of stabilization and strength, along with a relatively loose overall liquidity environment, providing support for high-elasticity assets [1] - There is a lack of substantial information impact in the fundamental signals before the Spring Festival, with high-growth sectors not facing concentrated verification pressure, allowing for potential valuation increases [1] Medium-term Outlook - The application of AI models is expected to enhance production efficiency, supporting valuations in the technology sector [1] - Global geopolitical tensions and resource security issues are providing temporary benefits to cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals [1] - Following the Spring Festival, the disclosure of annual and quarterly reports by listed companies will shift market pricing logic from risk appetite and valuation expansion to performance realization and profit growth [1] - As the performance verification window opens, valuation anchors are expected to realign with corporate earnings and actual growth levels, leading to a gradual convergence of previously excessive structural differentiation driven by risk appetite [1]