资金流向大揭秘：跟着“聪明钱”选ETF，“地产老登”迎来春季行情？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2026 has shown mixed performance, with some investors profiting significantly from AI ETFs while others face challenges in sectors like real estate. The article emphasizes the importance of understanding liquidity changes to navigate the market effectively [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent spring market rally has been driven by three waves of capital inflow: first, broad-based ETFs, second, flexible foreign capital, and third, leveraged funds, each contributing to the market's upward momentum [4]. - The first wave involved broad-based ETFs, particularly the CSI A500 Index ETF, which saw significant inflows as institutional investors positioned themselves early [4]. - The second wave was characterized by flexible foreign capital entering the market due to a strengthening RMB, boosting market sentiment [4]. - The third wave saw leveraged funds becoming a major force as investors increased their positions, pushing indices to new highs [4]. Group 2: Recent Changes in Liquidity - Recent weeks have shown signs of liquidity pressure, with net redemptions in ETFs, particularly in the CSI 300 and STAR 50 Index ETFs, indicating a shift in investor behavior [5][6]. - The inflow of flexible foreign capital has slowed, with expectations of continued outflows as these investors tend to be short-term players [6]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to cool down the rapid inflow of leveraged funds, which may lead to increased market volatility but is intended to promote rational investment [7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term liquidity pressures, the spring market rally is expected to continue, presenting potential buying opportunities during market fluctuations [8][9]. - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong fundamentals and potential for growth, such as technology and undervalued traditional assets like real estate [10][12]. - The article suggests avoiding ETFs with high redemption pressures and instead focusing on those with strong institutional backing, such as the CSI A500 Index ETF [11]. - Real estate and other traditional sectors like non-bank financials and liquor are highlighted as having potential for investment due to their stable cash flows and improving fundamentals [12][14].