晚报 | 1月26日主题前瞻

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals - The weakening of the US dollar has boosted the metal market, with gold and silver reaching historical highs. Spot silver rose over 7% to approximately $103 per ounce, while spot gold increased by 1% to about $4988 per ounce. London copper rose by 3.4% to $13187.50 per ton, nearing its historical high earlier this month. London tin increased by 9.5%, and London nickel rose by 4.2% [1] - Southwest Securities' metal research team suggests focusing on four main lines: 1) Expansion of the denominator, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold, emphasizing the importance of trading rhythm and monitoring Fed rate cut expectations and trade marginal changes. 2) Improvement on the numerator side, with a significant profit improvement in electrolytic aluminum due to a drop in alumina prices by 2025, although short-term demand weakness may lead to price declines for copper and aluminum. 3) Key advantageous minerals like rare earths, antimony, and tungsten may perform better. 4) Supply-side disruptions from anti-involution trends may present opportunities in the lithium carbonate sector [1]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The third Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Promotion Conference was held, focusing on "New Quality in Aerospace." The Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission awarded seven key laboratories, including those for low-orbit satellite communication and new power system satellite applications. The Beijing Economic and Information Bureau released measures to promote the development and utilization of commercial satellite remote sensing data from 2026 to 2030 [2]. - China Galaxy Securities believes the commercial aerospace industry is entering a golden era of dual-sided demand and supply growth, with rapid development in private rocket companies and a shift from national to commercial aerospace. Attention is drawn to structural component suppliers, with a focus on satellite manufacturing in the short term [2]. Group 3: Wind Power - The Secretary-General of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society predicts that China's new wind power installed capacity will reach approximately 120 GW by 2026. The integration of computing power and green electricity is seen as a trend, with significant electricity demand from data centers expected to exceed 3,800 billion kWh in the next five years, necessitating 175 GW of wind power generation [3]. - Guosheng Securities anticipates sustained high growth in wind power demand from 2026 to 2027, with wind power's contribution to new energy installations expected to rise from 25% to 50% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. Group 4: NAND Flash Memory - Samsung Electronics raised NAND flash memory supply prices by over 100% in the first quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations and highlighting severe supply-demand imbalances in the semiconductor market. This follows a nearly 70% increase in DRAM memory prices [4]. - TrendForce data indicates that NAND prices are expected to rise by approximately 33% to 38% in Q4 2025, with actual supply prices surpassing initial forecasts due to increased demand from AI infrastructure investments and limited supply growth over the past year [4]. Group 5: Diamond Detectors - Xi'an University of Electronic Science and Technology and the National Space Science Center have developed a high-performance single-crystal diamond radiation detector, enhancing reliability and stability for deep space exploration missions. This technology is expected to support future lunar, Mars, and Jupiter exploration tasks [5]. - The successful development of this detector signifies a breakthrough in key components for deep space exploration and demonstrates China's enhanced capabilities in high-end materials and devices [5]. Group 6: Logistics - The Ministry of Transport and eight other departments issued an action plan to cultivate leading logistics enterprises, aiming to enhance service capabilities and integrate with supply chains. By 2030, the goal is to establish around 100 comprehensive logistics integrators, including over 10 with global influence and competitiveness [6]. - The logistics industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "efficiency improvement," with a modernized system expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan, deeply integrating intelligence and sustainability [6]. Group 7: Robotics - Magic Atom has become the strategic partner for intelligent robots for the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, showcasing its various robot models, including the Magic Bot and Magic Dog series, which are designed for complex tasks and extreme environments [7].