乐观预期与市场情绪共振，锡价维持强势

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recent rise in tin prices is driven by improved macroeconomic sentiment and geopolitical policy disturbances [3] - As of last Friday, the main contract price of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed above 447,140 yuan per ton, marking a 6.56% increase [2] - The supply of tin is facing significant uncertainties due to geopolitical and policy disturbances in Myanmar, Congo (DRC), and Indonesia, which are major tin-producing regions [3] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a divergence between expectations and reality, leading to uncertainty in tin price trends ahead of the Spring Festival [4] - Global visible tin inventories have significantly increased to approximately 16,000 tons, with domestic social inventory rising from below 8,000 tons to around 10,000 tons [4] - Short-term tin price movements are expected to largely depend on market sentiment, with potential for prices to reach new highs if sentiment remains strong [4] Group 3 - From a medium to long-term perspective, the core logic of tin price movements revolves around resource scarcity and emerging demand growth [5] - Despite potential weak loosening in static supply-demand projections for 2026 due to the resumption of production at certain mines, risks of supply interruptions and depletion remain [5] - Overall, while short-term fluctuations may occur due to sentiment and inventory pressures, the medium to long-term supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, supporting high tin price levels [5]