Where Could This Stock Be Trading in 5 Years? Here's a Long-Term Look.

Core Viewpoint - Apple has shown resilience despite challenges over the past year, although it has underperformed compared to the S&P 500. The company is expected to face ongoing issues but also has potential growth opportunities ahead [1]. Group 1: Growth Drivers - The recent launch of the iPhone 17 has initiated a strong renewal cycle, with management guidance suggesting a return to double-digit year-over-year revenue growth. The popularity of the iPhone 17 is partly attributed to its new AI features [2]. - By 2031, Apple is expected to have introduced newer versions of its flagship iPhone, which may continue to drive growth [2]. - The services segment, which accounted for 39% of revenue in the latest period (up from 29% five years ago), is projected to grow significantly, potentially reaching close to 50% of total sales by 2031 [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges - Apple faces challenges from tariffs, particularly due to its reliance on manufacturing in the Asia-Pacific region, especially China. The company has attempted to mitigate this by increasing local manufacturing capacity [7]. - Ongoing antitrust lawsuits pose a risk, as regulators in the U.S. have accused Apple of monopolizing the smartphone market. The outcomes of these lawsuits could impact the company's strategic position and financial results [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Apple remains a highly valuable brand with over 2 billion active devices in circulation. The success of the iPhone 17 indicates that the flagship product can still drive growth, while the services segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue [9]. - The stock is currently priced at approximately $249, with projections suggesting it could exceed $410 by 2031, indicating a compound annual growth rate of at least 10.5% during this period [10].