张尧浠：金价如期突破5000美元、年内目标进一步上移

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown strong bullish momentum, with prices rising nearly $400 to approach the previously set target of $5000, indicating that the bullish trend may be stronger than anticipated, with potential to reach $6000 within the year [1][10]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $4615.41 per ounce, recorded a low of $4615.08, and then rebounded strongly, breaking through key resistance levels. By Friday, prices peaked at $4989.34, closing at $4982.08, marking a weekly increase of $388.01 or 8.45% from the previous week's close of $4594.07 [3][4]. Influencing Factors - The initial rise in gold prices was driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets following U.S. President Trump's warnings about tariffs on European countries related to the Greenland dispute. This was compounded by market uncertainties and expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year [3][4][8]. - Despite some fluctuations due to Trump's mixed signals regarding geopolitical threats, the overall market sentiment remained bullish, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [3][4]. Future Outlook - Gold prices are expected to continue rising, with a focus on the $5000 mark and potentially higher levels. The weakening U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks are likely to support this trend [4][10]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to diminish the attractiveness of low-risk assets, further boosting gold demand [8][10]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with significant purchases reported, which is expected to enhance the fundamental demand for gold and signal a bullish market outlook [8][10]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices are maintaining a strong upward trend, with potential for a significant increase of over 30% if current momentum continues. The target range is projected between $5500 and $6000 [9][10]. - The breakout above key resistance levels suggests the beginning of a new bull market, with the previous resistance now acting as support [12][11].