美日干预“箭在弦上”，美元走低日元急升，避险狂潮中黄金突破5000美元，美国天然气期货大涨16%

Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant volatility on Monday due to geopolitical risks, the U.S. fiscal deadlock, and threats of currency market intervention, leading to intense risk-off trading [1] - The market displayed extreme risk-averse characteristics, with a substantial influx of funds into precious metals as investor confidence in sovereign bonds and fiat currencies waned [1] Precious Metals - Spot gold rose over 1% during the day, reaching $5,037 per ounce, while spot silver briefly surpassed $106 per ounce, with an intraday increase of nearly 3% [1][2] - The recent surge in gold prices reflects deep-seated market fears, with gold prices doubling over the past two years and increasing by 15% this year alone [15] Currency Market - The Japanese yen rebounded sharply amid expectations of intervention, with the dollar index falling by 0.52% [1][6] - The dollar against the yen dropped by 0.89% to 154.32, currently trading around 154.77, while the euro against the dollar rose by 0.52% to 1.1888 [1][6] Risk Assets - Risk assets faced pressure, with Nikkei index futures initially down by 2.6%, Nasdaq futures dropping over 1%, and S&P 500 futures declining by 0.75% [1][11] - The probability of a U.S. government shutdown by January 31 has surged to 75%, driven by internal fiscal instability and recent events affecting budget negotiations [16] Natural Gas Market - U.S. natural gas futures prices surged by 16% due to a winter storm impacting the region, which is expected to increase heating demand [1][17]