载入史册的一周! “AI信仰”迎超级大考! ICE引爆停摆危局，美联储降息悬念与日元干预谜团即将揭晓

Core Viewpoint - The market focus is shifting from geopolitical crises to macroeconomic factors, fiscal and monetary policies, and corporate earnings disclosures, with significant events expected in the upcoming "super week" including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and earnings reports from major tech companies [1][2]. Economic and Market Overview - The S&P 500 index experienced a slight increase of less than 0.1% on Friday but fell 0.4% over the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.7%. The Nasdaq Composite, primarily driven by tech stocks, also entered negative territory with a weekly decline of approximately 0.1% [2]. - A notable price surge occurred in the U.S. natural gas futures market, which rose by 75% over five trading days due to severe winter weather impacting over 1.5 million people [2]. - The World Economic Forum in Davos highlighted increasing divisions between the U.S. and its Western allies, alongside domestic political tensions that could lead to a government shutdown [2]. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Investors expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75%, with a 98% probability of this outcome according to CME data. The focus will be on Chairman Powell's comments regarding inflation and employment [7][20]. - The nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair is anticipated to be announced soon, with Rick Rieder from BlackRock emerging as a leading candidate [7][21]. Corporate Earnings and AI Investment - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple, are set to report their earnings this week, which is crucial for assessing the ongoing AI investment narrative and its impact on market performance [5][10]. - Approximately 20% of S&P 500 companies will disclose quarterly earnings this week, with analysts believing that the tech sector, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," will drive earnings growth and market performance in 2026 [5][6]. AI and Technology Sector Insights - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta, are seen as key drivers of the ongoing bull market, benefiting from strong revenue growth linked to AI investments [6][11]. - The upcoming earnings reports from these companies will be critical in determining whether their substantial AI-related expenditures translate into real productivity gains and significant market transformations [10][12]. Storage and Semiconductor Industry - Companies like SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate, along with major memory chip manufacturers Samsung and SK Hynix, are expected to report earnings that will significantly influence the market outlook for AI infrastructure and storage demand [10][12]. - The demand for high-performance storage solutions is surging due to the rapid expansion of AI data centers, with analysts increasingly optimistic about the financial outlook for storage companies [17]. Geopolitical and Regulatory Developments - The Senate Agriculture Committee is set to hold hearings on the CLARITY Act, a significant regulatory proposal for the cryptocurrency market, which could impact the legislative landscape for digital assets [8]. - Political tensions in the U.S. are escalating, with potential implications for government funding and stability, particularly in light of recent violent incidents involving federal law enforcement [18][19].