脱钩美国、"重建军工"，欧洲需要砸万亿

Core Insights - Europe is accelerating the reconstruction of its defense industry to achieve military independence in response to threats from Russia and disagreements with the U.S. Analysts estimate that Europe needs to invest around $1 trillion to fully replace U.S. military capabilities [1] Group 1: Defense Spending and Investment - European defense spending surged to approximately $560 billion last year, doubling from a decade ago, and is projected to reach 80% of Pentagon's equipment spending by 2035, up from less than 30% in 2019 [1] - The cost of replacing U.S. military equipment and personnel in Europe is estimated to be around $1 trillion [1] Group 2: Production Capacity Expansion - European defense companies are expanding production at the fastest rate in decades, with Rheinmetall opening or constructing 16 new factories since February 2022 [2] - Leonardo has increased its workforce by nearly 50% to 64,000 employees over the past two years [2] - MBDA's production of short-range "North Wind" air defense missiles has increased from 10 to 40 units per month, and anti-tank missile production has doubled to 40 units per month [2] - Rheinmetall produces 1.5 million 155mm shells annually, surpassing the total output of the entire U.S. defense industry [2] Group 3: Existing Gaps in Capabilities - Europe still faces significant gaps in key equipment, particularly in producing stealth fighter jets and satellite intelligence, relying heavily on U.S. procurement for F-35 jets [3] - The continent lacks production capabilities for critical weapons like ballistic missiles and long-range missiles, with U.S. systems remaining the preferred choice [3] - Fragmentation in investment, research, and procurement across European nations hinders military rearmament efforts [3] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Some European countries are beginning to favor domestic over U.S. weapons, with Denmark's arms imports from Europe exceeding half due to pressures related to Greenland [4] - The UK has established its own military satellite system, previously reliant on the U.S., and other European nations are increasing their space deployments [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while Europe can arm itself, it will require time to achieve full independence from U.S. defense capabilities [5] - The significant increase in military spending and renewed focus on research and development are bringing Europe closer to independent operational capabilities [5] - The shift towards local supply could impact U.S. defense manufacturers, as Europe accounts for up to 10% of their revenue [5]