当乳业巨头失速，君乐宝如何靠“鲜”战略冲击港股

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the significant transformation of the Chinese dairy industry following the 2008 melamine scandal, with Junlebao Dairy Group's upcoming IPO representing a pivotal moment in its strategic evolution and response to market dynamics [1]. Company Overview - Junlebao Dairy Group has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC and Morgan Stanley as joint sponsors, indicating a new phase in its development [1]. - The company ranks third in China's comprehensive dairy market with a market share of 4.3%, driven by a diversified product matrix and an integrated supply chain [2]. Market Position and Growth - Junlebao's growth is primarily attributed to its leading position in the rapidly growing low-temperature liquid milk sector, which is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% over the next few years [2]. - The "Yuexianhuo" brand has captured 24.0% of the high-end liquid milk market, priced above 20 RMB per liter, marking a significant achievement in the company's high-end product strategy [2]. Revenue Structure - The revenue from low-temperature liquid milk products is projected to increase from 35.9% in 2023 to 38.5% in 2024, and further to 42.5% in the first nine months of 2025 [3]. - The low-temperature yogurt segment contributed significantly to growth, with a 27.6% share in the first nine months of 2025, while the fresh milk segment also showed rapid growth, reaching 10.7% [3]. Financial Performance - Junlebao's revenue for 2023 and 2024 is reported at 17.546 billion RMB and 19.833 billion RMB, respectively, with a notable increase in net profit from 5.58 million RMB in 2023 to 1.115 billion RMB in 2024 [4]. - In the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 15.134 billion RMB, with a net profit of 9.02 billion RMB, surpassing 80% of the total profit for 2024 [5]. Industry Dynamics - The Chinese dairy industry is experiencing stable growth driven by urbanization, health awareness, and product innovation, with the liquid dairy segment expected to account for 54.3% of retail sales in 2024, amounting to 355 billion RMB [6]. - The low-temperature liquid dairy market is projected to grow from 77.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 89.7 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.0%, indicating significant structural growth potential [6]. Competitive Landscape - The industry faces ongoing cost pressures from high prices of feed and energy, alongside intense competition across all price segments and channels [7]. - The market is shifting from a focus on volume growth to a more diversified and refined demand, emphasizing the need for companies to establish genuine brand value and consumer loyalty beyond short-term marketing efforts [8].