Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities assigns a target valuation for Beike-W (02423) based on mainstream internet platforms, projecting a total reasonable value of RMB 182.4 billion for 2026, corresponding to HKD 58.37 per share and USD 22.45 per share, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The second-hand market shows stable volume and price, positively impacting Beike's performance. In the first 18 days of January 2026, second-hand subscription transactions in 79 cities increased by 33% year-on-year, leading to an annualized second-hand transaction volume of 860 million square meters, a 24% increase compared to 2025 [2] - The contribution from first and second-tier cities to Beike's existing housing business GTV remains over 80%, with key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou contributing 37% in 2025. Beike's market share is steadily increasing, projected at 32% for 2025, with a 1 percentage point growth [4] Group 2: Financial Projections - The existing cost increase is expected to pressure Beike's performance in 2025, with an estimated GTV of RMB 2.1 trillion, a 6% decrease year-on-year, and a projected net profit of RMB 5.5 billion, down 24% year-on-year [3] - For 2026, the company conducted a sensitivity analysis under three scenarios: - Optimistic: 15% increase in transaction volume, stable prices, leading to a net profit of RMB 8.7 billion, a 59% increase year-on-year [5] - Neutral: 5% increase in transaction volume, 5% decrease in prices, resulting in a net profit of RMB 7.3 billion, a 33% increase year-on-year [5] - Pessimistic: 4% decrease in transaction volume, 10% decrease in prices, leading to a net profit of RMB 6 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year [5]