I Predicted Micron Would Soar Last September. What Happened Was Even Better

Core Insights - Micron has experienced significant stock growth, nearly doubling in value over the last three months with a 93% increase, and a 165% rise since last September [2][4] - The company is benefiting from a supply crunch in the memory subsector, leading to increased prices and a favorable market for major players like Micron [4] - Micron's latest earnings report indicates a $100 billion total addressable market (TAM) for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) expected to be reached by 2028, two years earlier than previously anticipated [5] Industry Dynamics - The compound annual growth rate for HBM is projected at 40% through 2028, which may alleviate concerns regarding the cyclicality of the memory sector [5] - Micron's fiscal second quarter guidance shows expected revenue of approximately $18.7 billion, significantly above the consensus estimate of $14.3 billion, with earnings per share forecasted at a midpoint of $8.42, nearly double the expected $4.71 [6] - The ongoing memory shortage is expected to favor Micron and its peers, as indicated by Intel's struggles with growth due to the same shortage [7] Valuation Perspective - Micron is currently valued as a high-risk, cyclical stock, trading at a forward P/E of 12 based on fiscal 2026 consensus [8] - Given the low valuation and persistent memory shortage amid the AI boom, Micron is viewed as a strong buy for 2026 [8]