Ge Long Hui·2026-01-26 04:44Core Viewpoint - Anta's main brand retail performance faced pressure in Q4 2025, while FILA showed recovery, and all other brands experienced significant growth [1][2] Group 1: Q4 2025 Performance - Anta's main brand retail amount decreased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year in Q4 2025 [1] - FILA brand retail amount increased by a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year in Q4 2025 [1] - Other brands saw retail amounts grow by 35-40% year-on-year in Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - The pressure on Anta's main brand is attributed to weakening domestic consumption momentum and a warm winter affecting sales, along with a delayed peak sales season due to the late Chinese New Year in 2026 [1] - Anta's main brand did not resort to aggressive promotions to boost short-term scale [1] - FILA's recovery is supported by healthy e-commerce growth and a clear brand positioning with a stable management team [1] Group 3: Other Brands Performance - Other brands are expected to maintain high growth, with Descente anticipated to grow rapidly due to the popularity of winter sports and strong brand foundation in professional sports [1] - KAILAS is also expected to see strong growth driven by good outdoor consumption trends and ongoing national expansion efforts [1] Group 4: 2026 Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, with Anta's main brand benefiting from the Lighthouse Plan, continuous store renovations, and expansion into new business models [2] - FILA is projected to continue its growth momentum [2] - Other brands, despite increasing scale, are expected to maintain rapid growth due to competitive strength and industry conditions [2] Group 5: Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be 4.70, 5.12, and 5.79 CNY per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - Given the company's strong competitive position as an industry leader, a PE ratio of 18 times for 2026 is suggested, leading to a target value of 102.81 HKD per share [2] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on these projections [2]