Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-26 06:24Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the dual challenges of rising copper prices and RMB appreciation in 2026 will have a manageable impact on the profitability of leading home appliance companies [1] Group 1: Copper Price Impact - Starting from the second half of 2025, copper prices are expected to rise significantly, but the overall increase in raw material prices remains controllable [2] - Historical data shows that the impact of cost pressure on gross margins has a lag of 2-3 quarters, and valuation is more influenced by macro liquidity and end-demand rather than raw material costs [2] - Leading home appliance companies can mitigate the impact of rising copper prices through three methods: increasing profits from upstream, improving internal efficiency, and raising prices for end consumers [2] Group 2: Price Increase Consensus - The new national subsidy in 2026 is expected to support demand and alleviate the price war trend in the industry [3] - There is a consensus on price increases across the industry, with both small and leading companies expected to raise prices around the New Year [3] - Sensitivity analysis suggests that if copper prices reach 105,000 CNY/ton, a price increase of 3-5% can effectively cover the impact of rising raw material costs [3] Group 3: RMB Appreciation Effects - RMB appreciation is likely to reduce foreign sales revenue and cause foreign currency asset exchange losses, which could squeeze profits for home appliance companies [4] - In 2026, with the backdrop of potential Fed rate cuts and a significant trade surplus, the RMB may face upward pressure [4] - Leading home appliance companies are well-hedged against currency risks, suggesting that the impact of RMB appreciation will be manageable [4]