Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-26 06:30Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Haitong International maintains a "buy" rating on Tencent Holdings (00700) with a target price of HKD 700, expecting stable performance in Q4 2025 and high-quality growth to continue into FY 2026 [1][2] - The forecast for Tencent's Q4 performance includes total revenue of RMB 195 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, and an operating profit (non-IFRS) of RMB 68 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - For FY 2026, Tencent's gaming product line is expected to be robust, with key overseas titles and a variety of mid-sized games, predicting Q4 2025, full-year 2025, and full-year 2026 gaming revenues of RMB 58 billion, RMB 241 billion, and RMB 264 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 22%, and 10% [1] Group 2 - The advertising business is driven by three main growth engines: video accounts, search, and mini-programs, with AI technology continuing to empower growth; mini-programs are enhancing advertising revenue through e-commerce and content distribution [1] - The forecast for advertising revenue in Q4 2025, full-year 2025, and full-year 2026 is expected to reach RMB 42 billion, RMB 145 billion, and RMB 172 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 19%, 20%, and 18% [1] - Despite potential pressure on profit margins from increased capital expenditures in 2026, the company anticipates slight profit margin expansion driven by high-margin new business lines, with adjusted operating profits projected at RMB 68 billion, RMB 280 billion, and RMB 312 billion for Q4 2025, full-year 2025, and full-year 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15%, 18%, and 12% [2]