野村陆挺：2026年扩内需要做好房地产化债

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the expectations for China's macroeconomic policies in 2026, emphasizing increased government spending and monetary easing to support economic stability and growth [1][9]. Economic Outlook - In 2025, China's economy is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, achieving a year-on-year growth of 5%, with a quarterly trend showing a decline from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.5% in Q4 [2][3]. - Domestic demand remains under pressure, with retail sales growing by 3.7% to 50.12 trillion yuan, while fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% to 48.52 trillion yuan [2][3]. - Exports are resilient, with a growth of 6.1% to 26.99 trillion yuan, supported by China's strong industrial base and competitive pricing [2]. Stock Market Performance - The stock market showed significant activity in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 22% from 3,262 at the beginning of the year to 3,968 by year-end [4][7]. - Government policies have successfully fostered a bullish market environment, with a cautious approach to prevent excessive volatility [7][8]. Policy Recommendations - For 2026, it is crucial to implement stronger measures to address real estate debt issues and enhance the pension system to support sustainable consumption [1][10]. - The focus should be on stabilizing the real estate market and improving the social security system to increase household consumption rates [11]. - A proposed increase in pension levels for 1.8 billion retirees could significantly boost consumer spending, with an estimated fiscal impact of over 200 billion yuan for a 100 yuan monthly increase [11].