前瞻：市场风暴眼美联储决议，如何为降息预期定调？

Group 1 - The focus of the market is on the potential 100% tariffs imposed by President Trump on Canada if a trade agreement is reached with China, leading to a shift towards safe-haven assets [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is a key point of interest this week, especially amid escalating global geopolitical tensions [1] - A series of important economic data releases this week will provide clearer insights into the global economic situation, which investors are closely monitoring [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the market will pay attention to Germany's IFO Business Climate Index, which is expected to show improvement, indicating a gradual recovery in the German economy [3] - The U.S. is set to release November durable goods orders, with expectations of a significant improvement to 3.7% month-on-month, up from -2.2% [3] Group 3 - On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, with expectations for a slight improvement above 90, reflecting consumer sentiment towards the economy [4] - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is also expected to remain negative for the 11th consecutive month, but a slight improvement is anticipated, suggesting a gradual recovery in manufacturing [4] Group 4 - On Wednesday, Australia's CPI for December is expected to rise to 3.5% year-on-year, maintaining expectations for potential interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia [6] - The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, with most market participants anticipating stability unless trade negotiations with the U.S. falter [6] Group 5 - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its interest rate, with market participants looking for insights from Chairman Powell's press conference regarding future policy directions [7] - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, emphasizing a cautious stance amid geopolitical tensions [7] Group 6 - On Friday, Japan will release December employment data, while Germany and the Eurozone will report January unemployment rates, expected to remain at 6.3% [8] - The Eurozone's Q4 GDP is projected to slow from 1.4% to 1.3% year-on-year, with the ECB noting stronger-than-expected economic resilience driven by domestic demand [8]