小摩吹起美联储利率决议前哨：内部鹰声隐现 政策声明措辞或将微调

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to be a straightforward decision with no changes to the policy interest rate, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% [1][2] Group 1: Meeting Expectations - The majority of market participants anticipate that the policy interest rate will remain unchanged during the FOMC meeting [1] - The meeting is not expected to release a new dot plot or economic forecasts, and any modifications to the post-meeting statement are unlikely to convey substantial policy signals [1][2] Group 2: Voting Dynamics - Committee member Miran may vote against the decision, advocating for a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points, while Bowman and Waller's voting positions are also of interest [2] - Bowman has indicated a likelihood of supporting a rate cut but remains open to pausing if economic conditions change, while Waller has expressed concerns about the labor market despite a recent drop in unemployment to 4.4% [2] Group 3: Statement Adjustments - The statement is expected to adjust the description of economic growth from "moderate" to "robust," while employment growth may still be described as slow but with a more stable outlook on unemployment [2] - Inflation is likely to continue being described as "slightly elevated," and the committee may remove references to rising employment downside risks [3] Group 4: Forward Guidance - The statement may eliminate the term "additional" from the phrase regarding adjustments to the target interest rate range, indicating a potential shift in forward guidance [3] - References to reserve management purchases are also expected to be removed, with asset balance sheet strategies not being a primary topic of discussion in the upcoming meeting [3]