集邦咨询：CPU、存储器价格同步上涨压力预估将导致2026年第一季全球笔电出货季减14.8%

Core Insights - Global laptop brands are expected to face significant pressure from rising memory prices starting in the second half of 2025, followed by a CPU supply shortage and price increases in early 2026, leading to a projected 14.8% quarter-over-quarter decline in global laptop shipments in Q1 2026 [1][3] Component Price Increases - The average BOM cost contribution of key components is as follows: - DRAM and SSD: 10-25%, with expected price increases of at least 80% for NB DRAM and 70% for NB SSD in Q1 2026 [2] - CPU: 15-30%, with ongoing negotiations for price increases [2] - Discrete GPU: 0-25%, with ongoing negotiations for price increases [2] - Battery: 5-10%, with ongoing negotiations for price increases [2] - PCB: 3-5%, with ongoing negotiations for price increases [2] Structural Cost Increases - PCB costs are rising due to increased design complexity and soaring copper prices, becoming a structural trend as motherboard layers increase with higher-end laptop specifications [3] - The cost of batteries is also increasing due to rising lithium battery material prices and higher power demands from CPUs and NPUs, which in turn raises the need for power management ICs [3] - New specifications like Wi-Fi 7 and USB 4 are contributing to higher costs for related chips and connectors, adding pressure on low-margin laptop brands [3] Shipment Forecasts - Despite supply risks, brands maintain an optimistic outlook for Q1 2026 shipments; however, it is anticipated that they may struggle to secure all necessary materials on time, leading to a projected 14.8% decline in global laptop shipments [3] - For the full year of 2026, shipment forecasts have been revised from a previously expected decline of 5.4% to a decline of 9.4% due to supply chain bottlenecks and unclear brand strategies [6] - The laptop market faces short-term uncertainty due to high memory prices and unstable CPU supply, with future adjustments in costs, inventory, product strategies, and consumer demand responses to price increases being critical for market conditions in the second half of 2026 [6]