瞭望 | 量子计算突围路线图

Core Insights - The global quantum computing competition is intensifying, with countries like the US, EU, and Japan elevating quantum computing to a national strategy, focusing on legislation, substantial investments, and international collaboration [3][4] - China has made significant strides in quantum computing, establishing itself in the first tier of the industry, but faces challenges in technology breakthroughs, supply chain security, and standardization [1][4] - The success of quantum computing depends on building a sustainable, full-stack ecosystem rather than just the parameters of individual machines [1][7] Investment and Strategic Initiatives - The US has invested approximately $6.078 billion over seven years through the National Quantum Initiative Act, while the EU plans to invest around $1.1 billion from 2018 to 2027 under its Quantum Technology Flagship program [3] - Japan has earmarked 1.05 trillion yen for quantum technology, designating 2025 as the "year of quantum industrialization" [3] - South Korea has allocated 198 billion won for quantum technology in 2025, indicating a global trend towards comprehensive breakthroughs in quantum computing [3] Technological Development - The focus is on six core capabilities: quantum chip systems, quantum computing measurement and control systems, quantum computing environmental support systems, quantum operating systems and software, quantum computing cloud platforms, and quantum application software [3][4] - China is advancing its quantum computing capabilities with a focus on "self-controllable" technology, achieving several independent results in the six core capability areas [4][5] Ecosystem and Collaboration - The US and EU are building ecosystems centered around operating systems, with companies like IBM and Google leading the way in standardization and collaboration [4][5] - China's quantum computing cloud platform is rapidly developing, providing low-cost access to quantum computing for various industries, thus promoting application exploration [5][6] Challenges and Barriers - The core technology barriers in quantum computing stem from its high specialization, requiring significant R&D investment and long-term technical accumulation [8][9] - The ecological barriers arise from the interdependence of hardware and software, with leading global companies creating user stickiness and technological moats [9][10] - Standard barriers are critical for industry dominance, with the US and EU actively working on international standards that could dictate future developments [9][10] Future Directions - Experts suggest that China should focus on three essential capabilities: quantum chips, measurement and control systems, and operating systems, to achieve breakthroughs [11][12] - A coordinated national strategy is recommended to foster innovation and industry cultivation, ensuring that China can compete effectively in the global quantum landscape [11][12] - The development of a shared ecosystem between research and industry is crucial for advancing quantum applications in key sectors like biomedicine and finance [12]