高盛最新行业报告显示，DDR4现货价较合约价暴涨172%

Core Viewpoint - The current DRAM market is experiencing significant price discrepancies between spot and contract prices, with DDR4 spot prices soaring 172% above contract prices and DDR5 showing a 76% difference, indicating a severe deviation from market supply and demand fundamentals. Goldman Sachs predicts a substantial correction in contract prices to align with market realities [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The imbalance between supply and demand is exacerbating the price differentiation trend. On the supply side, the construction and production cycle limitations of wafer fabs will result in very limited new DRAM capacity additions by 2026, with further reductions expected in the DDR4 segment, indicating a clear contraction in supply [3]. - On the demand side, there is a sustained high demand driven by the accelerated upgrade of AI infrastructure, which is expanding storage units from single servers to rack systems, significantly increasing overall DRAM demand and widening the supply gap [3]. Market Expectations - Goldman Sachs notes that downstream end customers are gradually recognizing the expectation of a significant price increase for memory in the first quarter of 2026, which solidifies the market foundation for subsequent contract price adjustments [3]. - The ongoing price gap correction and anticipated price increases may have a cascading effect on memory manufacturers' revenues and downstream electronic device manufacturing costs, making this trend crucial for the entire industry to monitor closely [3].