ZHIFEI-BIOL(SZ:300122) Jin Rong Jie·2026-01-26 10:09Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in Zhifei Biological's stock price, with a rise of 14.87% on January 26, is attributed to multiple factors including technical recovery, market sentiment, and concentrated shareholding, despite a backdrop of poor financial forecasts and ongoing operational challenges [1][3][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 26, Zhifei Biological's stock surged by 14.87%, increasing approximately 2.57 yuan per share, closing around 19.85 yuan, with notable trading activity [1]. - The company's stock price has been on a downward trend for four consecutive years, with a nearly 30% decline in 2025, placing its valuation at historical lows [1][5]. Group 2: Financial Forecast and Market Reaction - On January 12, the company announced a projected annual loss of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 630% to 780%, primarily due to excess inventory of the nine-valent HPV vaccine and a significant drop in agency business revenue [3]. - Concerns were raised regarding the company's inventory balance exceeding 20.2 billion yuan, with risks of the nine-valent HPV vaccine nearing expiration and evident pressure on the cash flow [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Shareholding Dynamics - The stock price surge was influenced by a reduction in the number of shareholders to 121,000, a decrease of 1,917 (1.56%), indicating increased concentration of shares as retail investors exited [3][5]. - Market speculation suggested that the inventory of the nine-valent HPV vaccine was being consumed faster than expected, although this information was not officially confirmed by the company [3]. Group 4: Divergent Market Opinions - The bullish sentiment among investors highlighted technical and emotional recovery, with some believing the stock had entered an upward trend after breaking above the 60-day moving average [4]. - Conversely, bearish opinions questioned the sustainability of the rally, citing unresolved issues such as high inventory levels and reliance on agency business, suggesting a likely correction in the future [4]. Group 5: Driving Factors Behind Stock Movement - The stock's rebound can be attributed to four main factors: significant technical recovery due to prolonged declines, market expectations of exhausted negative news following the earnings forecast, increased shareholding concentration facilitating price increases, and positive sentiment in the broader pharmaceutical sector [5].