AvaTrade爱华每日市场报告 - 2026年1月26日

Market Overview - The new trading week begins with a cautious and differentiated atmosphere, highlighted by spot gold prices breaking the $5000 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high [1] - Global stock markets exhibit a significant "large-cap strong, small-cap weak" split, indicating a selective risk appetite among investors amid uncertainties in central bank policies and geopolitical tensions [1] U.S. Stock Market - Large-cap indices show resilience, with the S&P 500 slightly up by 0.03% to 6915.62 points and the Nasdaq 100 rising by 0.34% to 25605.47 points, reflecting strong performance in tech stocks [3] - Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 index, fell by 1.82% to 2669.16 points, indicating concerns over financing costs and economic sensitivity [3] Commodities and Currencies - Gold prices surged, breaking the critical $5000 per ounce level with a weekly increase of 8.4%, driven by geopolitical risks and a weaker dollar boosting safe-haven demand [5] - WTI crude oil rebounded to $61.07 per barrel, as improved demand expectations offset some inventory pressures [6] - The U.S. dollar index continued its decline, dropping nearly 2% for the week, marking its worst weekly performance since June 2025 [7] Global Stock Markets - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 rising to 10143.44 points and the German DAX increasing to 24900.71 points, while the French CAC40 fell to 8143.05 points due to regional economic uncertainties [8] - The Japanese Nikkei 225 index led gains in Asia, rising to 52885.25 points, supported by yen depreciation and domestic policy expectations [8] Current Market Trends - The market maintains a cautious tone as investors focus on signals from the Federal Reserve, corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments [9] - Large-cap tech stocks remain stable ahead of earnings reports, while small-cap and cyclical sectors face pressure [10] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates, with attention on the dot plot for indications of future rate cuts [11] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland's sovereignty, continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets [12] - A significant inflow of over 100 billion yuan into gold ETFs indicates solid safe-haven demand, while silver futures also rose above $106 per ounce [14] - The energy and technology sectors are supported by earnings, while real estate and consumer retail sectors are pressured due to interest rate sensitivity [15]