日央行账户数据未现下场铁证！美日协同干预汇市预期推动日元升至两个月新高

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the Japanese yen and potential interventions by Japanese and U.S. authorities indicate a complex interplay of monetary policy and market dynamics, with a focus on stabilizing the yen and preventing excessive volatility ahead of Japan's upcoming elections [1][3][4]. Group 1: Japanese Yen Intervention - Japan's recent data does not provide clear evidence of intervention in the foreign exchange market, making it difficult to ascertain if the authorities bought yen last week [1]. - The Bank of Japan anticipates a reduction of 630 billion yen in the current account due to fiscal factors, which is significantly larger than market predictions [1]. - The yen experienced its largest single-day increase in nearly six months last Friday, with the USD/JPY exchange rate dropping by 1.28% to 153.73, the lowest level since November of the previous year [1]. Group 2: U.S. Involvement and Market Speculation - The New York Federal Reserve's inquiries about the yen's exchange rate have led to speculation that the U.S. may assist Japan in intervening in the currency market [3]. - Market expectations have shifted regarding U.S. intervention, with analysts suggesting that the U.S. may aim to weaken the dollar to enhance trade competitiveness [3]. - Economists from Evercore ISI argue that U.S. intervention is reasonable to prevent excessive yen depreciation and stabilize the Japanese bond market [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Political Considerations - The Japanese government has previously intervened around the 160 yen mark, spending nearly $100 billion to support the yen [4]. - The current goal for the Japanese government is to maintain exchange rate stability, particularly in the context of the upcoming elections, with a target range for USD/JPY between 145 and 155 [4]. - The potential for coordinated intervention between the U.S. and Japan may increase if the USD/JPY approaches recent highs, especially before the February 8 elections [4]. Group 4: Economic Projections - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates twice by 2026, while the Federal Reserve may lower rates twice, which could support the yen [5]. - Despite these projections, the trend of the USD/JPY may resume upward due to strong U.S. economic performance and structural capital outflows from Japan [5]. - Investors are advised to be cautious, as simple short positions on the yen may no longer be safe due to potential policy interventions from both Washington and Tokyo [5].