付鹏：全球秩序重构下的资产分化——解码生产力博弈与财政货币政策的底层逻辑与未来走向【付鹏说16】

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global economic dynamics, emphasizing the duality of asset differentiation driven by productivity breakthroughs and the ongoing restructuring of production relations and world order [6][19]. Group 1: Economic Structure and Asset Differentiation - The global economy has seen a phase of productivity breakthroughs, but the core contradiction lies in the incomplete restructuring of production relations and the rebuilding of world order [6][19]. - Assets are categorized into two types: those anchored in productivity growth, such as AI-related stocks and U.S. equities, and those reflecting the chaos of world order, including war-related assets and precious metals [6][19]. - This asset structure is expected to undergo transmission and recalibration within the next 12 to 18 months, aligning productivity, production relations, and world order [6][19]. Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Dynamics - Monetary and fiscal policies serve as regulatory tools, with their effectiveness contingent upon the stability of world order [6][19]. - The current chaos in world order has concentrated the core contradictions within government sectors, leading to a weakening of monetary policy effectiveness over the past decade, as seen in Japan's case [7][20]. - Fiscal deficits are not inherently problematic; the key issue is whether government spending translates into effective output, with concerns about government credit arising from world order instability [7][20]. Group 3: Effective Spending and Economic Stability - The sustainability of fiscal policy hinges on whether spending is effective, which involves stabilizing core productivity drivers and optimizing debt leverage and distribution relations [8][21]. - Historical examples from Japan and China illustrate that effective fiscal spending can stabilize productivity and economic fundamentals, even amid rising government debt [8][21]. - A balance between effective spending and income generation is crucial; without it, the risk of a "spend without revenue" scenario could lead to significant economic turmoil [9][22]. Group 4: Global Economic Challenges - The risks faced are not isolated to single economies but represent a global challenge, with potential widespread implications if major economies fall into similar predicaments [10][23]. - The European context highlights that the core issues are not merely about defense spending but rather about productivity shortfalls and lagging reforms in production relations [10][23]. - The ability of G2 countries to simultaneously adjust productivity and production relations is critical for global order reconstruction, while Europe struggles with internal political and ideological conflicts [11][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Once stability is achieved and productivity aligns with production relations, government debt issues are expected to ease as effective spending generates revenue to cover liabilities [12][25]. - The debate surrounding large-scale fiscal investments emphasizes that if these can be transformed into effective income through production relations adjustments, debt will not be a concern [12][25]. - Understanding the interconnectedness of productivity, production relations, world order, and monetary and fiscal policies is essential for grasping current global economic dynamics [12][25].