人民币中间价再创两年半以来新高，防范单边走势信号明显

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has reported a significant appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, reaching a new high since May 17, 2023, with the central parity rate set at 6.9843 RMB per USD on January 26, 2026, marking an increase of 86 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - The RMB central parity rate appreciated by 90 basis points to 6.9929 RMB per USD on January 23, 2026, marking the largest single-day appreciation since August 25, 2025 [4]. - The onshore RMB reached a peak of 6.9539 RMB per USD, while the offshore RMB peaked at 6.9445 RMB per USD, both representing new highs since May 2023 [4]. - As of January 26, 2026, the onshore RMB was reported at 6.9542 RMB per USD, reflecting a daily appreciation of 0.13%, while the offshore RMB was at 6.9500 RMB per USD, showing a slight depreciation of 0.02% [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The RMB central parity rate has been adjusted to a weaker position since December 2025 to guide market expectations and prevent rapid appreciation or one-sided trends [5]. - The recent strength of the RMB is attributed to a decline in the US dollar index, increased corporate demand for currency exchange, and heightened market sentiment [5]. - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate stability at a reasonable and balanced level, with the People's Bank of China focusing on market-driven exchange rate formation [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, the RMB is expected to remain strong due to anticipated export growth and seasonal corporate currency exchange demands, with limited potential for a significant rebound in the US dollar index [6]. - Over the year, the RMB's performance against the USD will depend on the dollar's trajectory, the intensity of central parity adjustments, and the effectiveness of domestic growth policies [6]. - If the RMB experiences significant fluctuations that diverge from fundamental values, regulatory measures will be implemented to stabilize the market and provide clear policy signals [6].