3 6 Ke·2026-01-26 12:49Core Insights - The automotive market in China is experiencing a significant shift, with domestic brands like Leap Motor, AITO, Xpeng, and Xiaomi seeing substantial sales growth, while multinational brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Porsche are facing declining sales [1][3] Group 1: Sales Trends of Multinational Brands - Mercedes-Benz and BMW have provided preliminary demand forecasts for 2026, each predicting sales below 500,000 units, a level comparable to their sales in 2016 [1] - Mercedes-Benz's sales in China are projected to drop to 575,000 units in 2025, a decline of 19.5% year-on-year, while BMW's sales are expected to fall to 625,500 units, down 12.5% [2][19] - The decline in sales for these brands reflects a broader trend of losing market share to domestic competitors, with significant drops in brand influence and sales volume [3][19] Group 2: Performance of Other Multinational Brands - Toyota and General Motors are showing stable performance, with Toyota's sales in China exceeding 1.78 million units in 2025, marking a slight increase of 0.23% [3][5] - General Motors reported a notable recovery with sales of 535,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.99%, ending a seven-year decline [3][8] Group 3: Challenges Faced by Korean Brands - Korean brands like Hyundai and Kia are struggling, with their market share shrinking from 3.8% in 2020 to 0.9% in 2025 [11] - Hyundai's sales in 2025 are reported at 210,000 units, a 14.8% increase, but this is seen as insufficient given the historical context of their performance [13] - Kia's sales are approximately 254,000 units in 2025, a slight increase of 2.3%, but still far below their peak of 650,000 units in 2016 [14] Group 4: Decline of BBA and Other German Brands - The BBA (Benz, BMW, Audi) group is experiencing significant declines, with Mercedes-Benz's sales dropping from a peak of 774,000 units in 2020 to 575,000 units in 2025 [19][20] - BMW's sales are projected to decrease from 825,000 units in 2023 to 625,500 units in 2025, losing approximately 200,000 units in just two years [20] - Audi's sales are also declining, with projections of 617,500 units in 2025, down 5% from previous years [21] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - The shift in consumer preferences is evident, with a growing focus on technology and practical features over brand prestige, impacting the sales of traditional luxury brands [25] - The rapid rise of domestic brands in technology and electric vehicle offerings is reshaping the competitive landscape, making it difficult for multinational brands to maintain their market positions [26]