Robust Trading & IB Performance to Support RJF's Q1 Earnings

Core Insights - Raymond James (RJF) is expected to report a decline in earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, while revenues are projected to increase [1][2] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RJF's fiscal first-quarter earnings is $2.83, reflecting a 3.4% decline year-over-year [2] - The consensus estimate for sales is $3.73 billion, indicating a 5.4% year-over-year growth [2][9] Asset Management and Fees - Management anticipates a 6.5% sequential growth in asset management and related administrative fees, driven by higher PCG assets and fee-based accounts [3] Investment Banking Performance - Global M&A activity surged in the December quarter, positively impacting RJF's advisory fees due to an easing buyer-seller valuation gap and lower capital costs [4] - The consensus estimate for RJF's investment banking fees is $276.4 million, which represents a 15% decline year-over-year [5] Trading Revenues - RJF's trading business is expected to perform strongly due to increased client activity and market volatility, influenced by factors such as the longest U.S. government shutdown and easing monetary policy [6] Net Interest Income - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net interest income (NII) is $551.8 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 33.3% [8][9] - Management expects NII and third-party fees from the Raymond James Bank Deposit Program to remain stable sequentially [8] Expense Outlook - Overall expenses are anticipated to rise due to consistent hiring of advisors and investments in franchises, compounded by a competitive environment and inflationary pressures [10] Earnings Surprise Potential - The likelihood of RJF beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate is considered high, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [11]