‌油市展望“大乱斗”：三大机构分歧依旧显著

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting assessments of oil supply and demand forecasts by major energy agencies, indicating a significant divergence in predictions for the oil market through 2026, with some expecting a large surplus and others anticipating a balanced market. Group 1: Supply Forecasts - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a substantial supply surplus in the oil market, estimating a daily surplus of over 4 million barrels in the first half of 2026 and an average daily surplus exceeding 3.7 million barrels for the year [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) aligns closely with IEA's outlook, forecasting a daily supply surplus of over 2.8 million barrels this year, with a peak surplus of over 3.5 million barrels in the current quarter [1] - In contrast, OPEC's analysis suggests a more balanced supply-demand scenario, projecting an average daily surplus of only about 600,000 barrels for the entire year [1] Group 2: Demand Growth Discrepancies - The divergence among the three agencies largely stems from differing views on oil demand and growth prospects, with IEA forecasting global daily oil demand in 2026 to be slightly below 100.5 million barrels, which is about 1.5 million barrels lower than OPEC's estimate [3] - IEA's recent upward revision of demand forecasts, increasing by 540,000 barrels per day over the past five months, reflects a more optimistic outlook due to anticipated normalization of the global economy in 2026 [3] - OPEC analysts maintain that the average annual growth rate of global oil demand since 2023 is 1.3%, consistent with pre-pandemic long-term growth rates, while EIA estimates a slightly lower growth rate of about 1.2% [4] Group 3: Historical Differences and Future Adjustments - The historical differences in demand forecasts between IEA and OPEC have widened, with the gap in predictions for 2026 exceeding 1.5 million barrels per day, compared to only 200,000 barrels per day in 2023 [4] - IEA anticipates an average annual growth rate of only 0.9% for global oil consumption from 2023 to 2026, significantly below historical averages [4] - All three agencies are expected to continue revising their oil demand forecasts and may adjust historical consumption data as new information becomes available [4]